Tuesday 11:25 p.m. update: Just a quick note to say that the forecasting models from Tuesday evening are still showing a similar track/strength as Tuesday morning, so everything below is still holding strong. -Scott

SEATTLE - Late October is typically the start of the stormy season around here and, this year, we're right on time.

Weather forecasting models show a potentially deep storm developing out in the Pacific Ocean and pushing through the Pacific Northwest area on Thursday, bringing strong winds throughout the area. A HIGH WIND WATCH has already been issued for the Washington coast, and could be expanded to include more areas later.

I'll just go over the basics now, and then we'll have a more in depth article here Wednesday when we'll have some better data to give more specific wind forecasts.

How Strong?

The storm has some decent energy, as it will be basically the remnants of Tropical Storm Lingling, which is currently out in the central Pacific Ocean. (Yes, Lingling -- the same name as the panda. I have no idea who names the storms out there.)

I know the first thing that jumps into everyone's mind is last December's storm and wondering how this will compare. At this point, it doesn't look as bad as that one, but still enough potential to cause problems such as widespread power outages and downed trees.

Unlike last December, when the forecasting models had four solid days of near perfect agreement on that storm's strength and track, this storm's forecast still has some variability in it. In fact, the models sort of hinted at it late last week, then gave up on the idea completely over the weekend and most of yesterday, before they all picked up on the storm in Monday evening's runs. The stormy scenario has held through Tuesday morning.

The central pressure of this storm is forecast somewhere between 975-985mb at its peak -- but around 985-ish crossing over the Puget Sound area. To compare, the one from last Tuesday that got all that attention but stayed away was around 960.

Last December's storm was 970, while the Inauguration Day storm was 976. (But remember the center pressure number isn't the sole factor. Track and "pressure gradient" -- the difference in pressure across an area -- are important facets in wind speeds.) Still, even a 985 would be strong
enough for power outages and tree damage.

Wind speed estimates at this time are generally for 30-40 mph gusting to 60 mph along the coast, and 25-35 mph, gusting to 50 mph for all other areas but we might refine those a little more tomorrow.

Where Will It Be Windy?

There is also still some uncertainty in the storm's track, making landfall anywhere between Long Beach and central Vancouver Island. It's the southern region of the storm where we get the brunt of the winds, so a landfall to your south gets you generally off the hook.

Just about every scenario does spell strong winds for the Oregon coast and Willamette Valley/Portland areas. High Wind Watches are already in effect for both the Oregon and Washington coast.

But some scenarios do paint a landfall far enough north to put all of western Washington in the potential for strong winds. At this point, there are no other watches up aside from the coast, but I think the National Weather Service is holding off on expanding any watches until the evening forecast model runs come in and hopefully give a more defined track.

Bottom line, while there's still some uncertainty in the details, it would be prudent now to at least prepare for the storm and then hope it misses us, as opposed to the other way around.

What's The Timing?

Here's the rough guesstimate of how this will shake out as of today. Windstorms here usually work in three phases.

First phase: Thursday morning from 6am-noon: East winds through the Cascade Passes. This would be as the storm approaches and passes a line due west of us. Gusty east winds would be expected in places like North Bend, Gold Bar, Enumclaw and the like. Could also get strong east winds down the Strait of Juan de Fuca. These would hold through late morning/noon. South winds would build along the Oregon coast.

Second phase: 10am-2pm: The storm begins to move ashore and cross the Olympic Peninsula or somewhere to its north or south.

South winds would begin to increase along the Oregon coast and then the Washington Coast. Depending on how far north the storm goes, we would have very strong southeast winds develop in the Northwest Interior. This would be from Everett west to Port Townsend and then north to the Canadian border, including Whidbey, Camano and San Juan Islands. A more southerly track to the storm may spare these areas, but be on guard.

Toward the end of that time frame, strong south winds would begin to build in southwestern Washington/Northern Oregon and then push north up the I-5 corridor.

Third Phase: 2pm-8pm: The storm crosses the I-5 corridor. Strong south winds would spread across the Puget Sound area. Winds would then begin to ease as we head into Thursday late evening.

The one thing to be mindful of with that scenario is that while this storm might not be as strong, strength-wise, as December, it has the added problem of expected landfall during the day and peak commute time, as opposed to the overnight storm of last December.

What To Do?

Aside from keeping tabs on the forecast (and if you're reading this, you already are), just the usual storm prep stuff of make sure you have enough batteries for flashlights; might be good to make sure the car's got a full tank of gas, and perhaps think back to last December if you were here and without power for a while: "What did I wish I would have thought of then?" You've got two days to rattle your brain.