Mother Nature to pull off hat trick... just not yet
Updated Thursday 5:20 p.m. to add in high seas forecast for coast on Sunday night.
Wow, we might have thought the little fringe bouts of snow earlier this week were a tough forecast. The weekend might just be the most difficult forecast we've had in quite some time -- ranging form potential for significant snow in some spots, or perhaps significant wind event, or even a hybrid of some parts getting snow while others get strong wind. At least it's on a weekend….
Luckily we have about two days to try and get caught up on sleep.Tonight will be partly cloudy, but chilly as some cold air continues to filter in behind yesterday's front. Lows will range from the mid 20s in the outlying area to the low 30s in the city. That might mean some spots of ice are possible Friday morning, so factor that in.
Aside from that, Friday is dry as well, with partly sunny skies through the afternoon. But keep the coat handy. Some modified arctic air …..meaning, it's been warmed a bit, but still has arctic origin…. will be seeping into the area. That translates to highs only near 40.
The next chance of snow comes in on Saturday late afternoon/early evening as a weak disturbance crosses the area. With highs expected only in the mid-upper 30s, this could be snow for most everyone who isn't next to a large body of water. However, the intensity is pretty light, so maybe 1-3" around the area in spots by Saturday night. Morning and midday should be dry through, to sneak in any needed errands.
It's Sunday where the weather gets even more challenging as a very complex and large (geographically speaking) storm begins to move into the area. This storm is much warmer and wetter, and the first part will move in Sunday morning. We should still have our cold air entrenched in place, so this could start as snow for everyone. But there's still plenty of challenges in figuring this one out, as the forecasting models are not consistent yet in their depictions, and each one is changing their tune with each model run.
(The main storm has tapped into some tropical moisture from Asia, and models usually have a tough time with that, and we're seeing the effects now. If only fish out in the Pacific had e-mail to let us know what's happening.)
One scenario has part of this overall storm branch off another area of low pressure going to our south into roughly the Astoria area. That scenario would have that low draw more cold air from the north out from Canada and perhaps make for a significant snow event for many areas -- let's say as much as 3-6" in spots, but don't pin me down for snow total forecasts yet because we don't have a solid basis yet for making more specific total forecasts.
But! Another model has that wave not too strong, and going ashore along Vancouver Island. That would put most of western Washington on the "warm" side as it would be a warmer south wind, and would be rain or brief snow-to-rain. The exception here would be the far northern areas near the Canadian border who would probably still get a few inches of snow before the warm air kicks in.
And then new as of Thursday evening, one model instead now brings that low in much stronger and just to our north, painting a scenario of strong winds to 50-55 mph in all areas... but that would be warmer and scour us out in no time flat, meaning all rain and little or no snow.
And of course, there's one model that has the average of the two which could be a scenario where different parts of the region get each one -- it could be snowing heavily with calm winds to the north of Seattle, and warm, rainy, and very windy to the south. Each mile difference in the storm track could mean the difference between the two events.
Or, there's the original scenario we mentioned earlier, still held by a few models, of the storm going north, but not as strong, and being rainy and breezy for most, although still some snow in Whatcom County.
So as you can see, the weekend forecast is in major flux right now. Just be prepared for snow. Or wind. And we'll of course keep you updated on which way we're leaning. (If I were placing odds, I'd think the windstorm scenario is the least likely right now as only one model is running with it, and the "original scenario" in the paragraph before as the leading candidate.)
Anyway, no matter which scenario plays out Sunday morning and midday, eventually we will all scour to rain as the main system and the associated front moves in Sunday night and Monday. This is where we turn our attention from any snow to focus on continuing rain and wind, as this parent system has tapped into some warm, tropical air and will push snow levels over 6,000 feet. (It will actually get warmer as we go Sunday night and any snow should be well on its way of melting by then, so hopefully roads will be bare and wet by Monday morning's commute.)
The center of this storm remains impressive -- ranging anywhere between 945 and 960mb. That low center is still going ashore far enough to the north that major winds are not a concern with this low in the Puget Sound area (The Olympic Mountains will act as a barrier between the low and us), but now the National Weather Service is warning of 80 mph winds and 36 foot seas along the coast and offshore waters Sunday night into Monday.
For the rest of the area, figure 50-55 mph gusts in the North Interior and 30-45 mph gusts in the Puget Sound area and Southwestern Washington as a first guess. Again, that's Sunday night into Monday -- separate from Sunday-day's events. So this is a 1-2-3 punch.
Rain is also a concern as it will be quite heavy through that Sunday night through Monday night timeframe. With high snow levels, river flooding will become possible as well. We'll keep an eye on it. Highs will probably make it well into the 50s.
Rain holds through Monday and into Tuesday and then we taper off to showers late Tuesday into Wednesday, and temperatures return to near normal levels of the mid 40s.
Trust me, I already have the date circled on the calendar :)
Wow, we might have thought the little fringe bouts of snow earlier this week were a tough forecast. The weekend might just be the most difficult forecast we've had in quite some time -- ranging form potential for significant snow in some spots, or perhaps significant wind event, or even a hybrid of some parts getting snow while others get strong wind. At least it's on a weekend….
Luckily we have about two days to try and get caught up on sleep.Tonight will be partly cloudy, but chilly as some cold air continues to filter in behind yesterday's front. Lows will range from the mid 20s in the outlying area to the low 30s in the city. That might mean some spots of ice are possible Friday morning, so factor that in.
Aside from that, Friday is dry as well, with partly sunny skies through the afternoon. But keep the coat handy. Some modified arctic air …..meaning, it's been warmed a bit, but still has arctic origin…. will be seeping into the area. That translates to highs only near 40.
The next chance of snow comes in on Saturday late afternoon/early evening as a weak disturbance crosses the area. With highs expected only in the mid-upper 30s, this could be snow for most everyone who isn't next to a large body of water. However, the intensity is pretty light, so maybe 1-3" around the area in spots by Saturday night. Morning and midday should be dry through, to sneak in any needed errands.
It's Sunday where the weather gets even more challenging as a very complex and large (geographically speaking) storm begins to move into the area. This storm is much warmer and wetter, and the first part will move in Sunday morning. We should still have our cold air entrenched in place, so this could start as snow for everyone. But there's still plenty of challenges in figuring this one out, as the forecasting models are not consistent yet in their depictions, and each one is changing their tune with each model run.
(The main storm has tapped into some tropical moisture from Asia, and models usually have a tough time with that, and we're seeing the effects now. If only fish out in the Pacific had e-mail to let us know what's happening.)
One scenario has part of this overall storm branch off another area of low pressure going to our south into roughly the Astoria area. That scenario would have that low draw more cold air from the north out from Canada and perhaps make for a significant snow event for many areas -- let's say as much as 3-6" in spots, but don't pin me down for snow total forecasts yet because we don't have a solid basis yet for making more specific total forecasts.
But! Another model has that wave not too strong, and going ashore along Vancouver Island. That would put most of western Washington on the "warm" side as it would be a warmer south wind, and would be rain or brief snow-to-rain. The exception here would be the far northern areas near the Canadian border who would probably still get a few inches of snow before the warm air kicks in.
And then new as of Thursday evening, one model instead now brings that low in much stronger and just to our north, painting a scenario of strong winds to 50-55 mph in all areas... but that would be warmer and scour us out in no time flat, meaning all rain and little or no snow.
And of course, there's one model that has the average of the two which could be a scenario where different parts of the region get each one -- it could be snowing heavily with calm winds to the north of Seattle, and warm, rainy, and very windy to the south. Each mile difference in the storm track could mean the difference between the two events.
Or, there's the original scenario we mentioned earlier, still held by a few models, of the storm going north, but not as strong, and being rainy and breezy for most, although still some snow in Whatcom County.
So as you can see, the weekend forecast is in major flux right now. Just be prepared for snow. Or wind. And we'll of course keep you updated on which way we're leaning. (If I were placing odds, I'd think the windstorm scenario is the least likely right now as only one model is running with it, and the "original scenario" in the paragraph before as the leading candidate.)
Anyway, no matter which scenario plays out Sunday morning and midday, eventually we will all scour to rain as the main system and the associated front moves in Sunday night and Monday. This is where we turn our attention from any snow to focus on continuing rain and wind, as this parent system has tapped into some warm, tropical air and will push snow levels over 6,000 feet. (It will actually get warmer as we go Sunday night and any snow should be well on its way of melting by then, so hopefully roads will be bare and wet by Monday morning's commute.)
The center of this storm remains impressive -- ranging anywhere between 945 and 960mb. That low center is still going ashore far enough to the north that major winds are not a concern with this low in the Puget Sound area (The Olympic Mountains will act as a barrier between the low and us), but now the National Weather Service is warning of 80 mph winds and 36 foot seas along the coast and offshore waters Sunday night into Monday.
For the rest of the area, figure 50-55 mph gusts in the North Interior and 30-45 mph gusts in the Puget Sound area and Southwestern Washington as a first guess. Again, that's Sunday night into Monday -- separate from Sunday-day's events. So this is a 1-2-3 punch.
Rain is also a concern as it will be quite heavy through that Sunday night through Monday night timeframe. With high snow levels, river flooding will become possible as well. We'll keep an eye on it. Highs will probably make it well into the 50s.
Rain holds through Monday and into Tuesday and then we taper off to showers late Tuesday into Wednesday, and temperatures return to near normal levels of the mid 40s.
Trust me, I already have the date circled on the calendar :)
