Northwest still set to 'chill out' this weekend
By Scott Sistek
SEATTLE -- It was a snow dance for the ages, apparently.
There's a very nice woman who used to live here in the Puget Sound area, but now lives in the small fishing town of Pelican, Alaska. We've corresponded back and forth for ages, and in mid-March when the weather was slow down here, but fairly snowy up there, I joked that we could use some excitement down here and maybe do a snow dance and send the snow our way, fully believing that our own snow season had long passed. That must have been some snow dance as you know it snowed about a week later, and now here we are a full month later with snow once again in the forecast. The "fun" gets going tonight, as a weak front moves through from the northwest. This will make for some breezy west winds in the Strait of Juan de Fuca to 35-40 mph in gusts, and also possibly trigger yet another Puget Sound Convergence Zone (which would be about the fourth of fifth one this week alone). So expect building clouds this evening, with an increasing chance of rain in the Puget Sound area through the night. Outside this area, just a few isolated showers expected. Lows will drop into the mid-upper 30s. Weather then gets interesting early Friday morning as some forecasting models hint that any showers around could be strong enough to actually be a rain/snow mix or even wet snow above 500-700 feet. We aren't expecting any real accumulations beyond a dusting, but I'm sure if it snows, it'll generate a lot of interest, so just a heads up. Whatever snow is out there changes to rain showers by late morning as highs should climb up into the upper 40s, but still a chilly, raw day out there, with possible ice pellets and hail mixed in with the scattered showers. The bulk of the cold air arrives Friday night and into Saturday. And while we won't have much moisture around, whatever showers that are out there could again be in the form of snow, especially late Friday night/early Saturday morning and above 500 feet or perhaps briefly lower in heavier showers. (In case you missed it, we now have a chart that shows general elevations for several cities and neighborhoods around Western Washington. You can find it at this link.) And again, no significant accumulations expected beyond a dusting to maybe enough to cover the grass in spots, although if you get a really heavy showers, I suppose it'd be possible for an isolated place or two to get an inch or so. But aside from snow, we might also see ice pellets, hail and maybe some occasional lightning as the atmospheres will be quite unstable. Temperatures will probably briefly claw their way to the mid 40s at some point in between showers so that will be our official high, but I bet many areas spend most of the day closer to 38-40. And don't forget, it's slam dunk snow in the mountains again. As much as 1-2 feet could fall between Friday and Saturday evening. Showers taper off Saturday night, but again, there could be a few snow showers mixed in with any lingering rain showers. Generally though, we begin clearing out a bit, and with cold air aloft, we're looking at low temperatures dipping into the upper 20s and low 30s. So again, be ready to protect vulnerable plants who certainly aren't used to this late of a freeze. We'll moderate a touch for Sunday with lingering isolated rain showers. Highs should get back to the upper 40s or low 50s, so snow isn't a concern anymore, but another very cold night on tap Sunday night with temperatures again dropping into the 20s to low 30s. What Records Are In Jeopardy? Quite a few records could be broken this weekend, but most of them are fairly obscure. First up, the records for coldest high temperatures. For Seattle on Friday it is 45 degrees, set in 1967. For Saturday, it's 47 degrees set in 1975, and for Sunday, it's 49 set in 1970. Friday's record is likely safe, Saturday's is very vulnerable, and Sunday's will be close. How about record low temperatures? Saturday night's is 33 and Sunday night's is 30, both set in 1961. Saturday has a chance, Sunday's will be a stretch. Also, if we get measurable snow at Sea-Tac Airport this weekend, it will be the latest recorded snow in the airport's history. They had 1.2" on April 17, 1972, which was preceded by 1.1" of snow on the 16th. It had snowed in Olympia on the 12th that year, so a prolonged stretch of temperatures cold enough to snow in mid-April isn't completely unique, but pretty close. For overall monthly records: As of Thursday, the average high temperature in April was 54.60 degrees, but that was monkey-wrenched by last Saturday's mini-heat wave. Toss out that 79 and we would be just over 53. The overall record for coldest April ever was 52.6 degrees set in 1970. We would have to average 50.6 degrees or lower the rest of the month to break that record. Another neat statistic: By the end of April, Seattle averages 12.6 days at 61 degrees or warmer since the start of the year. So far this year? Just the two set last Friday and Saturday. Why So Cold? Blame Little Girls One of the chief reasons it's been so cold has been a persistent jet stream that has carried some arctic air from Siberia into the Alaska region, then aimed it southeast into the Pacific Northwest. Some of that persistence could likely be blamed on La Nina (Spanish for "Little Girl, for all you French majors), which is the opposite of the famed El Nino (Spanish for "Little Boy" and Californian for "Please make the rains stop"). La Nina is a periodic cooling of the tropical Pacific sea surface, which reduces rainfall in that region and can affect weather around the world. La Nina winters typically mean a big mountain snowpack (check), above average rainfall in the lowlands (most areas are running at or slightly above average) and cooler than normal temperatures on the surface (big check). La Nina is expected to remain in power until July, but for the Northwest, this phenomenon typically loses influence as we get into late spring and summer, meaning that even if La Nina hangs around that long, it doesn't necessarily mean a cool and wet summer on tap. In fact, 90-day outlooks for the Pacific Northwest show an average late spring and early summer, and then perhaps a warmer and drier than average middle to late summer. Where Do We Go From Here? Next week is looking more stable, with partly sunny skies -- possibly mostly sunny by midweek but let's not go too hog wild yet -- and temperatures slowly climbing through the 50s to where we could be in the upper 50s by the end of the week. I would think by then we could effectively say that we won't have to worry about snow anymore this season, but who knows. In the meantime, I wonder if she can do a lottery dance? :) |
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