Winter storm begins inland march on Pacific Northwest

Winter storm begins inland march on Pacific Northwest

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By Scott Sistek

This story has now been archived. You can read the new, updated story at this link.

SEATTLE -- A potent winter-like storm is making its way into the Pacific Northwest Friday, bringing rain and very strong winds to some places.

With all the focus for many on snow and the upcoming cold air, wind is the focus of the short term weather through Friday evening. There are no lowland threats in the greater Puget Sound area through midnight.

Weather related news:

High winds are picking up along the coast. Destruction Island, near the storm's center, reported a gust of 86 mph, while Forks went from 20 mph to a gust of 69 mph as the storm passed them and begin its trek down the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Hoquiam reported a gust of 58 mph.

High winds along the coast have knocked out power to 6,000 Grays Harbor PUD customers at Ocean Shores and Tokeland.

In the Puget Sound area, Seattle City Light reports that 7,000 people lost power due to weather -- 4,000 in Burien and 3,000 in Shoreline.

US 101 near Lower Hoh Road in Jefferson County is closed in both directions due to trees down in the roadway. This is in the Kalaloch vicinity of Jefferson County. Trees were also knocked down on SR 109 at milepost 21 near Aberdeen Street.

Here is a list of peak gusts as of 3 p.m.:

  • Destruction Island: 86 mph
  • Forks: 69 mph
  • Hoquiam: 58 mph
  • Alki Beach: 52 mph
  • 520 Bridge (Seattle): 51 mph
  • Oak Harbor: 49 mph
  • Seattle (Magnolia): 49 mph
  • Friday Harbor: 47 mph
  • Shelton: 46 mph
  • Seattle (Sand Point): 46 mph
  • Tacoma/McChord AFB: 46 mph
  • Bremerton: 45 mph
  • Tacoma/Gig Harbor (Narrows): 45 mph
  • Seattle (Sea-Tac): 45 mph
  • Everett: 43 mph

And Here is the rundown of weather advisories as of 12:30 p.m. Friday. And Here is a link from the National Weather Service that will explain the definitions of the warnings being issued today.

Snow related:

All lowland Winter Storm Warnings have been canceled. That means the Puget Sound area is off the hook for snow through tonight.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY remains in effect this afternoon and evening for western Whatcom and Skagit Counties, as well as San Juan, Camano and Whidbey Islands Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, but only 1-3" are expected here.

A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect for late Friday evening through Saturday morning along the northeastern Olympic Peninsula, but that’s for the second phase of this storm. More on that in a moment.

Heavy snow is expected in the mountains after noon with 1-2 feet accumulating by Saturday morning. A WINTER STORM WARNING remains in effect there from Noon Friday through 6 a.m. Saturday

Wind Related:

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for land areas adjacent to northern inland waters, Puget Sound, Hood Canal, Admiralty Inlet and the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca until 5 p.m. Friday. The storm might add 1.0 to 1.5 feet to the already high tides and cause minor tidal overflow flooding.

A HIGH WIND WARNING remains in effect for the coast from 10 a.m. Friday through 4 a.m. Saturday. It will be a windy morning there, and then winds will increase from the west or northwest this afternoon and blow 30-40 mph gusting as high as 60 mph.

A WIND ADVISORY (A notch below High Wind Warning) has now been issued for the greater Puget Sound area until midnight for south winds of 25-35 mph gusting to 45 mph.

A WIND ADVISORY remains in until midnight for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet area for winds to shift to the northwest and increase to 25-35 mph, gusting as high as 50 mph.

A HIGH WIND WATCH is in effect for the western Whatcom County and the San Juan Islands for late Friday into Saturday. This is for the Fraser Valley winds that will increase from the northeast at 30-40 mph, gusting as high as 60 mph. (This is also for the second phase of this storm)

Here is the updated rundown of expected conditions as of 11:30 a.m.

Friday 1-4 p.m.

The low will make landfall and is expected to track roughly from Forks to Everett. As this happens:

* Wind will greatly increase along the coast. It will begin as a south wind of 20-30 mph, gusting as high as 45 mph through about early afternoon. It will then switch to some sort of a westerly component once the low passes in the afternoon and be 35-45 mph gusting as high as 60 mph.

* Wind will also begin to pick up through Strait of Juan de Fuca as the low passes each locale. West winds of 20-30 gusting as high as 45-50 mph are possible.

* Snow falls in the mountains, increasing in intensity through the early afternoon hours. Also getting some snow showers along the Hood Canal.

* Inland -- still just rainy.

Friday 4-8 p.m.

The low will move into the I-5 corridor and south winds will increase in the Puget Sound and southwestern Washington region. While cold north wind blows in Whatcom, San Juan, and possibly Skagit County.

* Winds are still a concern along the coast (West 35-45, gust 60) and down Strait of Juan de Fuca (West 25-35, gusting 50).

* South winds of 20-30 mph, gusting to 40-50 mph are possible throughout the Puget Sound area -- with highest gusts likely from Seattle south through Olympia.

* Snow could fall in areas listed above under Winter Weather Advisory (western Whatcom and Skagit Counties, as well as San Juan, Camano and Whidbey Islands.)

* The mountains will be getting hammered with snow and gusty winds. They don't care where the storm comes inland.

* Rain changes to showers across the lowlands.

Friday 8 p.m.- Midnight.

* Lowlands will see scattered rain showers with snow levels around 800-1,000 feet. A Convergence Zone is still likely to form, but with the absence of the north wind until now, snow levels will be higher than we were anticipating with the southerly track earlier Friday morning. So while the King and Snohomish County areas could see the Zone, we expect it to me mostly rain -- perhaps some slushy mix above 500 feet.

* Winds begin to taper off and should be much calmer by midnight.

* Snow showers possible western Whatcom and Skagit Counties, as well as San Juan, Camano and Whidbey Islands and spots along Hood Canal.

Saturday midnight-6 a.m.

* Scattered showers of rain, snow or mix, snow levels generally around 500 feet. Could still see 1-2" of slushy accumulations on hilltops.

* Best chance for snow showers elsewhere: Kitsap Peninsula, Northern Olympic Peninsula (Forks through Port Angeles and Sequim to Discovery Bay), Cascade foothills above 500 feet, Southwest Interior above 700 feet. Slushy 1-2" accumulations possible.

* Wind begins to increase in Fraser River Outflow, could see northeast winds up to 35-45 mph, gusting as high as 60 mph across western Whatcom County and the San Juan Islands (henceforth referred to as the "Fraser Outflow area", and I get 20 bonus points for using "henceforth" in this story.)

Saturday 6 a.m. to Noon:

Forecast from here on out is the same as before:

A second, reinforcing wave of arctic air forms in the interior of British Columbia. A trough of low pressure just off shore will help begin to draw that cold air out of the Fraser River Valley through northern Whatcom County and into Western Washington. That trough will also provide moisture in the form of random scattered showers.

So generally speaking, this period will feature scattered hit-and-miss rain or snow showers, with possible lingering Convergence Zone snow showers. Showers in the from of snow will be most prevalent in areas that got them Friday night, but accumulations should be light. Still likely rain or mix in the sea level areas.

* Very windy and cold still in Fraser Outflow area. Northeast winds up to 35-45 mph, gusting as high as 60 mph across western Whatcom County and the San Juan Islands. Wind chills dip to single digits.

Saturday Noon-8 p.m.

As that cold air sags south out of Bellingham, it could trigger an arctic front along the boundary of the cold air and really cold air.

This could bring a period of snow that could drop 1-3" across the area, and represents the best chance we have as a widespread snow. Air behind arctic front would be very cold and would likely freeze any snow to roadway surfaces. Temperatures drop from mid 30s in the morning into the 20s from north to south as the day progresses.

* Still windy and very cold in Fraser Outflow area. Wind chills nearing 0.

Saturday night:

Arctic air is now in place and getting deeper. Meanwhile, that trough will continue to toss scattered showers our way across the entire region. Snow levels at sea level so all showers in the form of snow. Accumulations in individual showers range from Trace-2".

Continued strong northeast wind in the Fraser Outflow to 50-60 mph in gusts. We'll also see brisk north winds fan out across the Puget Sound area and northern Olympic Peninsula to 15-30 mph.

That will drop wind chills near Bellingham near or below zero, and to around 10 in the Puget Sound area. Actual temperatures will drop into the teens to low 20s. Snowy roads ice over.

Sunday:

Similar to Saturday Night -- hit-and-miss snow showers will continue across entire region, with brisk north winds, increasing as you go farther north.

Any kind of snow or water on the road will be solid ice by now, making driving treacherous.

Highs will only be in the upper 20s to low 30s most areas, but only low-mid 20s near Bellingham. Wind chills in Bellingham near or below zero, and in the teens elsewhere.

Sunday night:

The trough moves away and showers taper off. As skies clear, temperatures plummet even farther. Lows will drop into 12-17 range with brisk north wind continuing.

Monday-Wednesday

It's mostly sunny, and crisp, but continued very cold as arctic air just keeps pouring in via the Fraser Valley. By now, Bellingham residents will qualify for Minnesota residency. Highs through the period will only reach the low-mid 20s, and lows will range from 10-17, making this potentially the coldest and longest arctic outbreak since 1990.

Morning commutes will be likely snarled by widespread ice, and I expect several school delays or closures. We can hope that as the week progresses the sun will at least melt and dry up whatever snow is out there and get slightly improving conditions as we go along.

On the other hand, get your cameras ready. I expect some truly spectacular city shots with the mountains crystal clear and full of new snow. And years from now, you'll forget how cold you were.

Beyond that, long range models continue to disagree with how long this cold air sticks around, and we'll have to watch as some models have occasionally hinted at some light snow Wednesday into Thursday. We'll see, but it's possible this cold air lasts through the week and into the following week.

By the way, as cold as it'll be here, it'll be much worse in Eastern Washington. Highs Sunday through Wednesday will be in the 8-13 degree range, with lows dropping as low as 15 below zero in Spokane Tuesday morning. (OK, maybe they get first priority for Minnesota residency.)

The Big Recap

So we've tossed quite a bit out there at you,but bottom line is this: This is a pretty potent storm, with the potential for strong winds, heavy snow, and icy roads over the next few days. And even with the uncertainty in the near term, we have high confidence in the upcoming extended cold snap.

You need to be prepared for possible power outages and travel problems along the road. If you are traveling today or this weekend, be sure to have emergency supplies in your car - especially a few blankets, coats and water -- just in the off chance you get stranded and have to wait for help as it will become bitterly cold as we go forward this weekend. Make sure your car has plenty of gas and that your cell phone has a good charge.

At home, be prepared for a scenario where you lose power and don't have heat. I don't expect huge, widespread power outages with this storm, but there could be a few. We saw the multiple tragedies with the December 2006 windstorm where people perished from carbon monoxide poisoning by using generators or barbecues indoor. More information at emd.wa.gov. Also be mindful of heating sources such as space heaters that can cause fires if they are placed next to flammable material, such as curtains or bedding. Unattended candles are also a dangerous source of fires.

But must of all, stay warm and stay safe!

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