Northwest about to get bowled over by 2 storms
SEATTLE - November is prime time for storms around here and this year is no different as two storms are racing toward the Pacific Northwest, expected to bring heavy rain and possibly very strong winds to parts of the region Monday and Tuesday.
High Wind Warnings are now in effect from 6 p.m. Sunday through 4 p.m. Monday for the coast and Northwest Interior (basically Mount Vernon to the Canadian border and west to Port Townsend, but also including all of Whidbey, Camano and San Juan Islands) from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Along the coast, we could see gusts of 60-65 mph at times, with gusts of 60 mph in the north interior.
High Wind Watches are in effect for the rest of Western Washington, including the Seattle-Tacoma area, with wind gusts possibly reaching 50-60 mph, with highest gusts on Tuesday.
In addition, a Flood Warning is in effect for the Skokomish River, while Flood Watches are in effect for all other rivers that feed off the Olympic Mountains, as well as rivers in Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish Counties.
What's going on?
We have a very strong jet stream that is pointing right at the north coast and into southern B.C. and inside the jet is a very active series of storms rolling along the path. Put another way, think of the jet stream as the bowling alley, storms as bowling balls, and we stand right about where the "3" or "6" pin sits ... and Mother Nature is a fairly decent bowler.
Storm No. 1: Late Sunday into Late Monday
The first storm is set to come bowling ashore late Sunday into early Monday. Rain will pick up and keep us wet through the day, with strong winds developing on the coast and northwest interior, and gusty winds elsewhere.
Southerly winds along the coast have potential to reach 60-65 mph with this storm right along the ocean (so, Ocean Shores, Westport, Long Beach) while it'll be slightly lower inland like Aberdeen, but still potentially damaging speeds.
In the Northwest Interior, wind could gust to 60 mph out of the southeast. The Puget Sound area and Southwestern Washington away from the coast are expected to get a little windy, but not damaging winds.
These are where High Wind Warnings are in place, meaning they are imminent.
Note that newest forecasting models Sunday night backed off a touch on the strength of Monday's storm, and thus expected wind speeds were downgraded a bit to 60-65 mph as opposed to 70-75 mph.
For the rest of the area, including the Seattle Metro area, a lesser Wind Advisory is in effect for south winds gusting to 45 mph through the period. So yes, now even in Seattle, we are expecting some pretty strong winds, but not *too* bad.
Storm No. 2: Late Monday into midday Tuesday:
We'll actually get a lull in the wind Monday midday into Monday evening as the first storm passes and Mother Nature "reracks" the pins for the next frame. In fact, winds may significantly calm, but don't think the event is over. We'll still see rain at times though.
The second storm rolls in Monday night into Tuesday. This one is even stronger with landfall expected to be around central Vancouver Island around sunrise Tuesday.
We expect winds to quickly increase just after midnight Tuesday morning along the coast, and Northwest Interior a couple hours later (1-3 a.m.). Again, forecasting models at this point indicate top wind speeds have potential to reach be 60-65 mph along the coast, and up to 60 mph in the Northwest Interior.
Forecasting models Sunday night also indicated a little more uncertainty with these wind speeds, so the region is now back under a High Wind Watch, meaning strong winds are possible, rather than a High Wind Warning, which means they are imminent.
This storm will also have a greater effect on the Puget Sound area and Southwestern Washington, with gusty winds developing around 6-7 a.m. and lasting through about noon. Wind speeds here could have some gusts to 50-60 mph out of the south.
A High Wind Watch is now in effect for this area as well starting 6 p.m. Monday through 6 p.m. Tuesday. This means higher gusts over 57 mph are possible, but not yet certain.
(For weather geeks, to put in perspective, we try to gauge wind speeds based on differences in pressure, as the greater the difference, the stronger the wind speeds. One meter is the difference in pressure between Bellingham and Portland. During typical November wind events (like we've seen a few times this month), this number usually gets around 8-12 milibars difference. The Inauguration Day storm of 1993 was a 21.5 and the Dec. 2006 storm was 23.2. This storm is forecast right now to be around 14-16. So at this point, models predict a strong storm, but probably not Top 10.)
Winds will calm Tuesday afternoon.
Flooding a concern, too
Aside form the wind, rain will be a factor in the mountains. These storms have quite a bit of moisture embedded and with the strong winds aloft slamming that moisture into the mountainsides, the process will wring out a lot of rain.
The Olympic Mountains and Northern Cascades will take the brunt of the rain, which is where the Flood Watches are located, and lesser amounts are expected in the Central and Southern Cascades. The Green River looks like it'll be OK.
The greatest flooding threat lies on the Skokomish River, which could see major flooding. A Flood Warning is in effect here. Other Olympic Rivers are also under the gun for some sort of flooding.
In the Cascades, the Nooksack is probably the greatest threat to flood, although at this time not expected to be major. Rivers in Snohomish and Skagit County will get close to flood banks and might go over, but they are more uncertain.
Over on the coast, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect Tuesday for the effects from persistent strong south winds, combined with high tide, 20-foot waves, and low atmospheric pressure to cause coastal flooding. The predicted high tide Tuesday is 11.1 feet.
Minor tidal overflow occurs around 13.5 feet, with coastal flooding in Aberdeen at 14.0 feet. These conditions are ripe to add about 2-3 feet to tide table predictions, so thus, the watch. Those along the coast should be prepared for some tidal flooding.
Rain will taper off to showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, but more rain and wind is expected Thursday.
High Wind Warnings are now in effect from 6 p.m. Sunday through 4 p.m. Monday for the coast and Northwest Interior (basically Mount Vernon to the Canadian border and west to Port Townsend, but also including all of Whidbey, Camano and San Juan Islands) from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Along the coast, we could see gusts of 60-65 mph at times, with gusts of 60 mph in the north interior.
High Wind Watches are in effect for the rest of Western Washington, including the Seattle-Tacoma area, with wind gusts possibly reaching 50-60 mph, with highest gusts on Tuesday.
In addition, a Flood Warning is in effect for the Skokomish River, while Flood Watches are in effect for all other rivers that feed off the Olympic Mountains, as well as rivers in Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish Counties.
What's going on?
We have a very strong jet stream that is pointing right at the north coast and into southern B.C. and inside the jet is a very active series of storms rolling along the path. Put another way, think of the jet stream as the bowling alley, storms as bowling balls, and we stand right about where the "3" or "6" pin sits ... and Mother Nature is a fairly decent bowler.
Storm No. 1: Late Sunday into Late Monday
The first storm is set to come bowling ashore late Sunday into early Monday. Rain will pick up and keep us wet through the day, with strong winds developing on the coast and northwest interior, and gusty winds elsewhere.
Southerly winds along the coast have potential to reach 60-65 mph with this storm right along the ocean (so, Ocean Shores, Westport, Long Beach) while it'll be slightly lower inland like Aberdeen, but still potentially damaging speeds.
In the Northwest Interior, wind could gust to 60 mph out of the southeast. The Puget Sound area and Southwestern Washington away from the coast are expected to get a little windy, but not damaging winds.
These are where High Wind Warnings are in place, meaning they are imminent.
Note that newest forecasting models Sunday night backed off a touch on the strength of Monday's storm, and thus expected wind speeds were downgraded a bit to 60-65 mph as opposed to 70-75 mph.
For the rest of the area, including the Seattle Metro area, a lesser Wind Advisory is in effect for south winds gusting to 45 mph through the period. So yes, now even in Seattle, we are expecting some pretty strong winds, but not *too* bad.
Storm No. 2: Late Monday into midday Tuesday:
We'll actually get a lull in the wind Monday midday into Monday evening as the first storm passes and Mother Nature "reracks" the pins for the next frame. In fact, winds may significantly calm, but don't think the event is over. We'll still see rain at times though.
The second storm rolls in Monday night into Tuesday. This one is even stronger with landfall expected to be around central Vancouver Island around sunrise Tuesday.
We expect winds to quickly increase just after midnight Tuesday morning along the coast, and Northwest Interior a couple hours later (1-3 a.m.). Again, forecasting models at this point indicate top wind speeds have potential to reach be 60-65 mph along the coast, and up to 60 mph in the Northwest Interior.
Forecasting models Sunday night also indicated a little more uncertainty with these wind speeds, so the region is now back under a High Wind Watch, meaning strong winds are possible, rather than a High Wind Warning, which means they are imminent.
This storm will also have a greater effect on the Puget Sound area and Southwestern Washington, with gusty winds developing around 6-7 a.m. and lasting through about noon. Wind speeds here could have some gusts to 50-60 mph out of the south.
A High Wind Watch is now in effect for this area as well starting 6 p.m. Monday through 6 p.m. Tuesday. This means higher gusts over 57 mph are possible, but not yet certain.
(For weather geeks, to put in perspective, we try to gauge wind speeds based on differences in pressure, as the greater the difference, the stronger the wind speeds. One meter is the difference in pressure between Bellingham and Portland. During typical November wind events (like we've seen a few times this month), this number usually gets around 8-12 milibars difference. The Inauguration Day storm of 1993 was a 21.5 and the Dec. 2006 storm was 23.2. This storm is forecast right now to be around 14-16. So at this point, models predict a strong storm, but probably not Top 10.)
Winds will calm Tuesday afternoon.
Flooding a concern, too
Aside form the wind, rain will be a factor in the mountains. These storms have quite a bit of moisture embedded and with the strong winds aloft slamming that moisture into the mountainsides, the process will wring out a lot of rain.
The Olympic Mountains and Northern Cascades will take the brunt of the rain, which is where the Flood Watches are located, and lesser amounts are expected in the Central and Southern Cascades. The Green River looks like it'll be OK.
The greatest flooding threat lies on the Skokomish River, which could see major flooding. A Flood Warning is in effect here. Other Olympic Rivers are also under the gun for some sort of flooding.
In the Cascades, the Nooksack is probably the greatest threat to flood, although at this time not expected to be major. Rivers in Snohomish and Skagit County will get close to flood banks and might go over, but they are more uncertain.
Over on the coast, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect Tuesday for the effects from persistent strong south winds, combined with high tide, 20-foot waves, and low atmospheric pressure to cause coastal flooding. The predicted high tide Tuesday is 11.1 feet.
Minor tidal overflow occurs around 13.5 feet, with coastal flooding in Aberdeen at 14.0 feet. These conditions are ripe to add about 2-3 feet to tide table predictions, so thus, the watch. Those along the coast should be prepared for some tidal flooding.
Rain will taper off to showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, but more rain and wind is expected Thursday.