Avian flu makes its first human to human jump. An American on a business trip to Asia unknowingly comes home infected. It spreads like wildfire. Homes and neighborhoods are quarantined and fenced off from the rest of the population. Panic ensues. Rioters loot stores. The desperate die in a hail of National Guard gunfire as they try to hijack an armored car carrying flu vaccine. Within weeks millions are dead and buried hastily in mass graves.

Dramatic and maybe a bit over the top, but....

"The scenario could play out," said Dorothy Teeter, Interim Director and Health Officer for Public Health - Seattle & King County.

She's talking about the rapid spread of an avian flu pandemic: the worst case scenario her department is preparing for. She watched the program with us Tuesday night along with Laurel Nelson the Emergency Preparedness Manager for the Bellevue Fire Department.

"It's helpful," Nelson said of the TV mix of fact and fiction, "because I think it raises people's awareness."

Awareness that, at least in terms of numbers, statisticians predict could happen. Teeter says her department bases their worst case estimates by extrapolating the death rates from the 1918 Spanish Flu.

Based on that level of infection they predict that 11,500 people could die in King County alone, 57,000 would need hospitalization, and 600,000 could be clinically ill. And that is just in the first six weeks of a bird flu pandemic.

"I think the worldwide numbers could be beyond our imagination really," said Teeter.

Teeter and Nelson did take issue with much of the TV movie's Hollywood hype. Haz-Mat teams will not rush to homes to isolate families behind fences and barbed wire. Mass graves are not part the contingency plans. Subway stations will not become makeshift hospitals and morgues.

"They got right a lot of what could happen," said Teeter of the potential for rapid spread of the H5N1 flu. "What they got wrong was it was exaggerated."

But Nelson says that in the event of a bird flu pandemic a quarantine might involve people being asked to stay home, to stay away from public areas.

Schools might close for days or weeks to stem the spread of the virus. So just like they preach for earthquake and other natural disaster preparedness, the experts say the movie provides a "teachable moment." Be prepared with several days or weeks of food and other supplies to ride out this storm at home if and when it does come.

"It just reaffirms that we need to be personally prepared and this is a great opportunity to keep informing citizens on that," said Nelson.

If you would like more information about how to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic, the Seattle/King County Public Health department has compiled a list of resources for the public on their website:

• www.metrokc.gov/health/pandemicflu
• www.metrokc.gov/health/news/06022801.htm