Rumors are true: Getting colder this weekend. But snow? Eh...

SEATTLE -- It's probably the most anticipated weather event in two years, and it's still several days away. The big question on a lot of people's minds is: Is it going to snow this week?

Of course, giving a definitive answer on snow in Western Washington is difficult. But with the advent of Twitter and Facebook, weather rumors can fly much more fast and furious than even just a couple of years ago when we had our last potential snow event in the Puget Sound region.

So to begin, here is a list of things that it will NOT be like this weekend:

* It will not be December 2008, redux
* It will not be December 1996, redux
* It will not be January 1950, redux
* It will even not be Thanksgiving 1985, redux

What we are looking at is maybe potential for some pockets of snow, mainly in the Friday night through Sunday timeframe, but even then it is now looking like most of the Seattle Metro area will miss out on most of the fun.

In other words, for the Twitter world, this is looking more #snoEH than #SnOMG!

The rumors began last week when extended long range forecast models foretold of potential for a long-lasting arctic blast that would start at the end of this week and carry through the Thanksgiving holiday. With all the fuss about this being such a strong La Nina and the somewhat likelihood of a snowy winter, people were putting the two together and having visions of going out and making a snowman while the turkeys cooked, a la 1985. (Wait, there was no power in 1985...)

Since then, the forecasting models have eased back -- quite a bit actually -- and what's now in the fold is much less snowy (or "#SnOMG-ey").

But there is still a chance of snow in pockets, and it will definitely get cooler, so heightened awareness of the changing weather conditions is a good thing.

Here is how the end of the week and weekend is shaping up now as per latest forecast models. (Of course, this is highly subject to change.)

A moderately sized storm will blow through here on Wednesday, making for a rainy and breezy day.

Cooler air will filter in behind the storm, as a secondary low moves in and slowly meanders around the region. Meanwhile, some arctic air is expected to slowly slide down into southern B.C. from northern and central B.C., but will take its time getting there -- probably not really reaching there until Saturday. Snow levels drop Thursday, but probably only to about 1,500-2,000 feet. So Thursday is a non-issue, just scattered rain showers. We've got highs in the low 40s.

By Friday, the air mass cools just a little more, but probably snow levels still at 1,000 feet or higher -- depending on where that low is, we'll probably keep a warmer southwesterly wind over Seattle. That translates to scattered rain showers. So as of this morning, lowland snow chances on Thursday and Friday are looking remote. About only hope for snow here is if you get a really heavy shower temporarily knocks down the snow level, but I'm not sure the atmosphere will be even cold enough for that yet. Maybe if we time a a few showers Friday night when it's at the coolest part of the day...

It's now during the day Saturday that the arctic air begins to settle into B.C. -- two days later than the models had been thinking earlier. That low meandering around us might at least pull some of it into northwestern Washington, but by then, that low is fizzling and are losing the moisture. So it's probably really not until late Saturday or Sunday now until we're cool enough to get snow levels down near the ground. And by then? Moisture appears to be in short supply. At this point, the best chance for some snow-at-the-ground is in Whatcom County near the outflow of the Fraser River Valley -- the pipeline to the colder air in interior B.C. But with not much moisture around, we're not thinking much accumulations if any.

The rest of the region's best hope is for some remaining isolated showers to still be around, and hope it's heavy enough to perhaps drop the snow level a bit. But for most of us, I suspect we'll be dry and chilly this weekend with temperatures in the upper 30s/near 40.

Now, snow fans, don't give up all hope. One other model does try to bring a weak system in around Sunday that could potentially bring some snow showers, but as usual, there is high uncertainty and for right now, the bulk of models are trending dry.

But overall, while it's probably our first cold snap of the season, it's not looking like at this point it'll bring much of a lowland snow issue. Now, some extended forecasts do keep that arctic air "in the neighborhood" up in B.C. for a while and thus, the long range trend for the end of November is to remain cooler than normal, so it appears we might be playing this "guess when and where it might snow" game for a while. But we'll leave that speculation to Twitter and Facebook land for now.

Speaking of which, if you want to join in on my and other weather geeks' speculations, you can follow me on Twitter at @ScottSKOMO or on Facebook at ScottSWeather