OLYMPIA, Wash. -- Shoppers in the state are cutting back and the slowdown is worse than expected, according to the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

The council, which keeps tabs on everything, from cars to donuts, says the tax revenue from June 11 to July 10 was $60 million less than it had predicted, even though the council had predicted a slowdown.

At the top of the economic crash list are cars. For the sixth straight month, car sales are down, this time by 11.8 percent.

"I've got a very old car, 16 years old. It gets terrible mileage but I can't really think about replacing it with something newer because I can't afford payments on a new vehicle," said David Kennedy.

And it's not just cars. One economist told me recently if I want a quick look at the economy, look at a Costco parking lot. So I went to look on Tuesday and traffic in the lot wasn't exactly bumper to bumper. In fact, cars were few and far between.

So where did all the shoppers go? Some said they're shopping closer to home in order to save on gas.

"I used to just buy Costco. My wife, she'd usually spend about $300," said Daniel Wakjera. "Now, we just check it out (and don't buy). No way. We can't do that."

The council says furniture sales are off by eight percent. And to one economist, all the numbers point to bad news.

"My guess is we probably are ending the first quarter of a recession right now," said Chris Weber, an economist with Seattle University.

Here's another troubling sign: despite beautiful weather, many petunias are still orphans at the garden stores, which also report an 8-percent drop.

And it not just the yard that's taking a hit. The state says taxes from home sales are down significantly. The real estate arrows point down for sales and sale price. State wide tax receipts are down about 52 percent.

So, should you worry?

"Well, for the average person it may mean relatively little," Weber said. "It could mean higher prices. It could mean that wages don't grow as rapidly as they normally do. Recessions really hurt for the people who lose their jobs when it happens.

As for the R-word, state economic forecasters say because these numbers only reflect conditions for just one month, it's too early to call it recession.

Incidentally the state tax figures show two things are selling well right now: tobacco and booze. Weber says that's not a hopeful sign when it comes to the economy.