Snowflakes creep into the forecast for next week
SEATTLE -- Our tranquil January is about to get a jolt back to life as a chilly air mass makes its way into the Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska this weekend and into early next week, providing our first chance of lowland snow since mid November.
We remain sunny and dry through Friday, but the signs of change will be evident on Saturday as clouds increase, followed by some light rain showers by mid afternoon. We'll still be warm enough that this is rain, but it's once this front passes that the cold air begins its trek into the region and snow levels drop.
This is not shaping up to be a classic widespread snow/arctic blast event, but instead a chilly trough of low pressure that will sweep in from the Gulf of Alaska and hang around for a few days. This pattern usually brings a fringe snow event because while the air mass is indeed cold, winds will still blow in off the warmer oceans instead of the chilly Fraser River Valley, and those ocean winds tend to keep temperatures a little above freezing.
In that case, what we tend to get are the hit-and-miss showers that, if heavy enough, can temporarily lower the snow levels down to the ground, drop an inch or two of snow, but then the temperature warms back to the mid-upper 30s once the shower passes, and the snow begins to melt. Of course, during the night, the snow has a better chance of sticking around.
Our first chances of lowland snow begin on Saturday night as scattered showers remain and snow levels drop to a few hundred feet. In keeping with the general theme of this forecast -- the showers will be of the hit-and-miss variety and not a widespread snow event, so we won't be able to declare X area will get Y amount of snow. But where the snow does fall, you might get a light accumulation.
Scattered snow showers remain in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as the cold, unstable air mass remains. While any spot could get snow, the places with the greatest chances of getting snow are the foothill communities (thanks to elevation and topography-enhanced showers), the Puget Sound Convergence Zone areas of Snohomish and northern King Counties (conditions are favorable for zone developments) and southwestern Washington (especially as we head into early next week.)
Any of these showers could put down 1-2 inches of snow, but we're not looking for any major accumulations. (Still, you've all seen what 1-2 inches of snow can do to a neighborhood.) Highs will be in the mid-upper 30s Sunday and Monday with lows around the freezing mark.
The forecast gets another wrinkle for Tuesday as models indicate a warmer and much wetter system pushing into Oregon. But depending on how much cold air entrenched leading up to the storm's arrival, and depending on where that storm's track goes, it could potentially begin as a widespread snow, then change to rain event. Or it'll just be a wet and mild day. Still much uncertainty here so stay tuned.
In the meantime, enjoy the calm before the "storm."
Keep up to date on the region's snow chances by following Scott on Twitter @ScottsKOMO and on Facebook.
We remain sunny and dry through Friday, but the signs of change will be evident on Saturday as clouds increase, followed by some light rain showers by mid afternoon. We'll still be warm enough that this is rain, but it's once this front passes that the cold air begins its trek into the region and snow levels drop.
This is not shaping up to be a classic widespread snow/arctic blast event, but instead a chilly trough of low pressure that will sweep in from the Gulf of Alaska and hang around for a few days. This pattern usually brings a fringe snow event because while the air mass is indeed cold, winds will still blow in off the warmer oceans instead of the chilly Fraser River Valley, and those ocean winds tend to keep temperatures a little above freezing.
In that case, what we tend to get are the hit-and-miss showers that, if heavy enough, can temporarily lower the snow levels down to the ground, drop an inch or two of snow, but then the temperature warms back to the mid-upper 30s once the shower passes, and the snow begins to melt. Of course, during the night, the snow has a better chance of sticking around.
Our first chances of lowland snow begin on Saturday night as scattered showers remain and snow levels drop to a few hundred feet. In keeping with the general theme of this forecast -- the showers will be of the hit-and-miss variety and not a widespread snow event, so we won't be able to declare X area will get Y amount of snow. But where the snow does fall, you might get a light accumulation.
Scattered snow showers remain in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as the cold, unstable air mass remains. While any spot could get snow, the places with the greatest chances of getting snow are the foothill communities (thanks to elevation and topography-enhanced showers), the Puget Sound Convergence Zone areas of Snohomish and northern King Counties (conditions are favorable for zone developments) and southwestern Washington (especially as we head into early next week.)
Any of these showers could put down 1-2 inches of snow, but we're not looking for any major accumulations. (Still, you've all seen what 1-2 inches of snow can do to a neighborhood.) Highs will be in the mid-upper 30s Sunday and Monday with lows around the freezing mark.
The forecast gets another wrinkle for Tuesday as models indicate a warmer and much wetter system pushing into Oregon. But depending on how much cold air entrenched leading up to the storm's arrival, and depending on where that storm's track goes, it could potentially begin as a widespread snow, then change to rain event. Or it'll just be a wet and mild day. Still much uncertainty here so stay tuned.
In the meantime, enjoy the calm before the "storm."
Keep up to date on the region's snow chances by following Scott on Twitter @ScottsKOMO and on Facebook.
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