When Good Forecasting Computer Models Go Bad

Tools

By By Steve Pool

SEATTLE - The basis of forecasting models are created from taking a current picture of the atmosphere. But we can only take weather observations at certain locations around the globe, so we have to average in the areas not observed.

That, and even the most complex mathematical modeling equations we've developed can't account for all of the subtleties of Mother Nature. And once a model misses one thing, that error will become magnified as the forecast extrapolates out further in time. Add the fact that the oceans are nearly devoid of observation points, and you make it easy for mistakes to occur from averaging over large distances.

Your Photos

YouNews Fantastic Solar Eclipse Fantastic Solar Eclipse
Chased the sun most of the day but there were enough breaks in the clouds to capture the solar eclipse and the massive
sunspot AR2192. You could view the eclipse through the clouds. These images were taken with a Meade AR6 refractor,
a Nikon D3000 DSLR, a Thousand Oaks Glass (type2) solar filter.
YouNews Double Rainbow All the Way! Double Rainbow All the Way!
My husband works at Vigor on Harbor Island. This double rainbow was directly over downtown Seattle, but these buildings were in the way. Still makes a pretty cool picture.