When Good Forecasting Computer Models Go Bad

Tools

By By Steve Pool

SEATTLE - The basis of forecasting models are created from taking a current picture of the atmosphere. But we can only take weather observations at certain locations around the globe, so we have to average in the areas not observed.

That, and even the most complex mathematical modeling equations we've developed can't account for all of the subtleties of Mother Nature. And once a model misses one thing, that error will become magnified as the forecast extrapolates out further in time. Add the fact that the oceans are nearly devoid of observation points, and you make it easy for mistakes to occur from averaging over large distances.

Your Photos

YouNews Up! Up! And away! Up! Up! And away!
When I saw this dramatic cloud to the north, it reminded me of smoke, rising in billows until it hits the jet stream, then it's pulled hundreds of miles east. I had to capture it quickly. Within minutes the effect had faded.
YouNews Inside an osprey nest Inside an osprey nest
For my girlfriends birthday we had a party at her parents. We knew the nest was there but the owner hadn't seen or heard the osprey for a day or two. He asked me to fly my drone up and see if any was wrong. I flew up and found that there were two eggs inside.
YouNews Our Garden Our Garden
The growing season has been great.

The secret to this garden is simple.
I used recycled grass clippings.