It's seemed like a broken record of late -- the end of the month comes, and we talk about how warm the month has been. July, August, September and now October have been among the warmest on record at Sea-Tac Airport (since 1945) in all three categories: average monthly high temperature, average overall temperature and average minimum temperature.
For October, it'll end up the second-warmest by high temperature (64.6 through Oct. 30, record is 65.4 degrees in 1987, second place was 63.8 in 1965.) But by average temperature (high+low/2) and average low, 2014 is the champ -- and by quite a bit. The average October temp this year is 58.2 degrees; old record 56.4 in 1965, and average October low temp is an amazing 51.7 degrees, obliterating the old record of 49.2 degrees in 1988.
So now that we've had a string of very warm months -- so far, February is the only month that's ended up cooler than normal this year and the past four have been in the Top 5 for warmest average high temperature and Top 3 for warmest average overall temperatures, you might be wondering if we are due to set any annual temperature records.
Turns out, it's a distinct possibility!
The most difficult will be the annual record for average high temperature, currently 62.5 degrees in 1992. If Seattle were to have an average November and December for high temperature, we would end up at 62.0 degrees -- tied for third warmest year on record at Sea-Tac Airport.
To set the record, Seattle would have to have November and December combine for 7.4 degrees above normal (as in, November could be 5.4 degrees warmer and December could be 2.0, or 3.7 and 3.7, etc.). We've been averaging about 4-5 degrees above normal per month since July.
But for annual overall average temperature and annual low temperature average, we're holding strong to set the all-time records here. If November and December just end up average, we'll set the record for overall average temperature (54.6, current record 54.4 in 1995) and average low temp (47.1, record is 46.7 which is tied from 1995 and… last year.) Of course going warmer than normal and we make the record that more difficult to break in the future.
And, as we've said, all signs point to continued warmth in November and December. So looks like those temperature records should be nervous.
How are we in rainfall?
Seattle has essentially clinched the division with 10 games left on the schedule. With the storm Thursday, we're at just short of 38 inches of rain for the year, already ahead of the annual average of about 37.5" with soggy November and December still to come.
We're at about 13 inches above normal for rainfall for the year, which if we held there, we'd end up at about 50 inches this year -- good for 3rd wettest so Top 5 seems within reach. But unlike the long range forecasts which are favorable for warmer weather to help in our temperature record quest, they are trending drier than normal as we head toward the end of the year.
Just don't look at the forecast for this week!