Weather Blog

La Nina not going down without a fight, apparently

La Nina not going down without a fight, apparently

As I wrote on Tuesday, La Nina conditions are weakening and are expected to be gone by June.

But new long range forecast models issued Thursday indicate this La Nina is going to make every last day count.

The 30 day forecast for May indicates a higher than average chance of cooler than normal temperatures as well as a higher than average chance of wetter than normal conditions. (If you want to get technical, these maps indicate there is between a 40-50% chance of a cool May, a 33% chance of average and only a 17-27% chance of a warmer May. The map indicates the same for rainfall chances.)

For the longer 90 day forecast that spans May, June and July, it also has a bit of an indicator of cooler weather over the Northwest.

But the 90 day forecast from June through August does not show any cool signal (same as what I talked about in Tuesday's blog) and actually indicates parts of the West will be quite toasty. So that to me says the cool May is weighting down the rest of the two months in that first map.

The map isn't showing as strong of a cool signal as these maps had been before we got into March and April, so I suspect we'll see our share of nice, 60+ degree days in May and maybe even a 70. In fact, even this weekend is showing some hope of reaching 60.

But if these forecasts are right, there is a at least a higher chance of perhaps needing to keep that jacket handy a little while longer.