Weather Blog

A "cool" record to try and track

I've always thought that if you're going through a period of abnormal weather, might as well break some records to make it count for something.

For sun fans tied of the missing spring warmth, that salvation has come in an obscure record pointed out to me by one of my climate tracking peeps, Jason Phelps: If we make it to June 12th with high temperatures under 65, it will be the first time in Seattle history we went the first 12 days of June 65 or under.

If we make it to the 11th, that will be the longest since 1917. Running the long range forecasting model out, the 11th is probably our best chance to get to 65 between now and the 12th, but then we quickly cool back off through the following weekend.

So if we get past the 11th under 65, it could be until after the 15th before we cross over 65, although the weekend of the 14th/15th might eke out a 65 or 66 depending on how long it takes the morning clouds to burn off.

Of course, up in Everett, they'd be glad to just get over 60. So far, since midnight on June 1, the warmest it has been there is 60 degrees.

More Record Fun

We did this a bit on the online forecast discussion in April (but that was before the blog), so it'll be easier to do here, but if you want to play along at home for tracking how chilly it is this June, here are the Top 10 coldest Junes at Sea-Tac Airport:
  1. 1971: 62.73
  2. 1953: 63.27
  3. 1956: 64.60
  4. 1954: 64.80
  5. 1981: 65.00
  6. 2001: 65.27
  7. 1964: 65.60
  8. 1999: 65.70
  9. 1955: 66.67
  10. 1973: 66.93
This is average high temperature -- what most people feel out and about -- and not to be confused with just average temperature, which factors in the high and low for the day.

Most stats you'll see in the general media will likely spout average temperature. That's fine -- I just prefer tracking average high (easier to compute and, again, it's what most people notice). Just so you don't say I'm wrong if you see other numbers somewhere :)

FYI, through June 4, our average high is 59.25.

As a P.S. -- does that 1971 sound familiar? That is also the year we set the coldest April for high temperature and was atop the similar April charts we were following back then.  We didn't quite live up to 1971's cold standard for April, but we managed to get #9. Interestingly enough, May 1971 also reasonably followed this past May with one big hot day (87) and then plenty of cooler than normal days.

If we assume this June will end up in the upper echelon for chilly, and then take 1971 as a blueprint for the rest of the year, there is hope for sun fans.  July of 1971 ended up pretty close to normal, and August was a full 3 degrees warmer than normal.