Weather Blog

'Long-shot' rain showers come through

'Long-shot' rain showers come through
If you're an Arizona Diamonbacks fan, maybe you should start planning a World Series celebration?

How does this tie to a weather blog, you ask? Well, believe it or not, the odds of getting rain in Seattle on July 29th were about 12 to 1 against -- Vegas says that's the same odds as the Arizona Diamondbacks winning the World Series this year. (And oh, the irony that we'd be talking about rain connected to a baseball team from the desert).

July 29th is (or, was) tied with August 8th for the fourth driest day of the year in the city, with what was just 10 years with measurable rain over the past 115 years. But today marks No. 11. (Rain in the summer is kind of neat, because it helps really illustrate the number of tourists around here. The "Umbrella Index" today was all the way up to 33.

What's that? It's the ratio of people I see walking around with or without umbrellas around the Seattle Center when it rains. Today, of the 27 people walking by while waiting at a traffic light, a whopping 9 had umbrellas -- or 33%.

Typically in non-tourist season when those around here are hearty Seattle natives, that Index might be at 2. 0-5 usually means it's the winter offseason, 5-10 means a charter tour is at the Space Needle, 10-20 usually means a cruise ship is in town, and anything over 20 means it's an extreme tourist alert -- likely a cruise ship in town as SeaFair hits the peak and the family reunion is in town from Houston to escape the heat. So a 33 is quite impressive.

And yes, this is a statistic I completely made up myself :)

The kings of dry days are July 30, August 1, and August 4, all with just 9 instances of rain in the past 115 years. There is a chance that both the 30th and the 1st could see a hundredth of rain or so to knock them off the perch, but odds are fairly good (better than 12-to-1) that they will keep their title.

(So you can see why SeaFair has all the big events this time of year -- they've done their homework and know this week is the best bet to stay dry in Seattle.)

You can see the chart for yourself of driest days in Seattle at this link.

But if you really, really, (I mean, REALLY!) need someplace dry, plan your outdoor event in Bakersfield, California for this week.

Their records go back 119 years and there are 50 -- 50! -- days of the year in the summer when they have *never* had any measurable rain. That means a trace or zero doesn't count. That periods includes the 8 consecutive days between July 31 and August 7.

If you count a "trace", which means it rained but not enough to make 0.01", they've had 14 days of the year where it has never rained even one teensy drop.

Long range forecasts here do show us retuning to sunshine and more typical summer-like weather by the weekend.

Hmmm...a sunny weekend in Seattle? Wonder what those odds are? Maybe Mariner fans have something to hope for this season after all!