Weather Blog

A more snow-friendly take on the outlook this winter

A more snow-friendly take on the outlook this winter
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You've probably heard the official forecasts for a warmer and drier winter, thanks to El Nino. But look out the window and neither "warm" nor "dry" come to mind.

Many say El Nino usually doesn't really begin to affect our weather until after New Year's, but at least one other long range forecaster seems to think a good mountain snowpack and a few lowland snow events are still in the offing.

Matt Leach, who writes a weather blog for the Kitsap Sun, has come out with his own long range forecast, which he bases on a number of different factors, including how similar years in the past (say, stormy spring, hot summer, wet November in weak El Nino years, etc.) have fared that winter.

But what's really amazing about Matt is that he's just fresh out of high school -- he graduated from Central Kitsap this summer, but is way ahead of his years as far as weather knowledge goes. I've been chatting with him since he was 11, and he's certainly a rising star in the field.

Anyway, the usual disclaimer that long range forecasting is an inexact science and this is just his take, but one a few skiers will probably hope is more correct than the official forecast :)