El Nino declared over before it really began
Well, so much for El Nino this winter...
NOAA has officially ended their "El Nino Watch", meaning they no longer believe it's coming and instead, say the Pacific Ocean waters will be near normal -- or neutral -- conditions.
(In fact, some of the latest model outputs suggest possibility for a third-time La Nina (triple-dip?) by January, although the consensus is for neutral conditions.)
Not that I think a vast majority will mind. El Ninos do typically bring a benefit of a quiet, low-to-no snow winter in the lowlands for those who hate dealing with frozen precipitation. But the expense is usually a lower-than-average snowpack -- not good for the ski industry and potentially creating issues for water usage in the following summer on both sides of the Cascades.
Instead, we're now left with a neutral winter, or as some cleverly call it: "La Nada". You'd think something that was going to be near normal instead of an extreme one way or the other would also suggest a tranquil winter, but that's typically not the case in the Pacific Northwest.
If El Nino winters are noted for dry and warm and La Nina winters are noted for wet and cool, neutral winters are noted for storminess. Just about all major wind storms have occurred in neutral years, along with some of our greatest snow events.
Now wait a minute, you might be thinking, weren't we all freaking out over La Nina the past two winters as the storm kings? La Nina winters do, as a whole, tend to be snowier, especially in the mountains (check and check for winters of 2010-11 and 2011-12). The lowlands managed to escape both our last La Nina's with less snow than expected.
Neutral winters tend to be fairly quiet, until they're not. As a whole, neutral winters can be fairly benign but can leave a calling card-type storm, be it windstorm (like Hanukah Eve, 2006; Inauguration Day 1993) or a snow event (Dec. 2008, Dec. 1996) and then go much of the rest of the fall/winter unscathed.
That's not to say we should start now coming up with a name for some inevitable future storm this winter but it's always good to be prepared.
And for skiers and snowboarders, it means you can at least keep the ski wax on the shelf, instead of buried in the garage.
P.S. Way to go Mom!
It's not weather-related but wanted to give a quick proud-son family shout-out to my mom Karen who was chosen as the featured artist for the 2013 Skagit Valley Tulip Festival, and her design for the official poster was unveiled Thursday night in Mount Vernon. You'll see her artwork everywhere at the tulip fields in April! :)
Some winters are actually OK for golf... not so much the last couple. But I'm good with a big snow... it's pretty to look at.
Congrats to mom!!
Interesting to see, but kind of sad for those of us living in Colorado. I grew up in the Seattle area and even our dry years there are nothing compared to the recrod breaking drought that we have been having here. I have been living on the Palmer Divide of Colorado between Denver and Colorado Springs for about 5 years now. It is a great place and we get a good amount of snow even in a dry Winter. In fact, nearly 120 inches in a normal winter here in Black Forest. The past two winters have been almost bone dry for the majority of the state. El Nino would have been good for us here, but it looks like another year of possibly above average precip for the Northwest. Generally a stormy period there spells dry weather for us, so this is very bad news. We had a large fire here in Colorado Springs earlier this year and even some of the trees in the forest that we live in are starting to die just from the lack of water. I have seen about 1 for every 10 trees die since we moved here and I wouldn't be surprised to see that go up to 3 in 10 next year if the weather pattern doesn't change soon. I'm currently studying for a degree in Meteorolgy and this has been a heart breaking weather pattern for someone who enjoys the weather and outdoors as much as I do. I still love Colorado though, but miss the Seattle rain...
Record breaking not recrod breaking. Just seeing if anyone is paying attention. :)
That's how I like my snow. In one big fun dose and then for it to go away until the next year.
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Also, congrats to your mom! =)
Sounds like nuetral winter are just as boring el nino winter with just one big event and that's not even certian, so there no point of geting too excited. that sucks.
News like this is about as lovely as a cancerous growth.Â
This is great news! Â Get off your couches and get out into the snowy mountains this winter.. oh and stop complaining about the weather!
After the last few years I'm starting to get a little snow weary.
A quite winter would have been appreciated.
Guess we'll have to wait and see what really happens.
Really hoping for a few good wind storms....maybe at least one really big one.....and a few good lowland snow events! So far the season has started out pretty quiet.  Hoping it wakes up soon!
 @hopeforthefuture Do you have gas for the generator, firewood, etc? :-)
@Silvia You betcha! We actually have a propane generator with a few extra cylinders and tons of firewood....plenty of food, barrels of water outside and bottled water for drinking inside, candles, flashlights, first aid supplies, warm winter clothes,  etc., etc., ....And of course lots of games to keep the kids busy! I think we're ready for just about anything....I hope!
had to comment about your allergy. my in-laws are also, when the power goes out I never have to worry about them showing up at our place since we have a wood stove! i even fire up all my old oil lamps since they don't like the smell of those either.Â
@Commenter87643 @hopeforthefuture You actually wind up in the hospital because of wood smoke? Allergy medication/inhalers don't work for you? They've got so many allergy treatments, shots, etc. But if stuff makes you that sick,then maybe you should move - ? I wouldn't ask my cat loving friends to "toss" their furry friends on my account - I wouldn't do that to my own kitty! So I'm sure you don't think people should stop heating with wood just for your comfort! (I itch a lot. Especially depending on if it's pollen season. Which is most of the year, I think. But a *lady* doesn't scratch in public. Or so my mother says! Grrrr!)
 @Silvia  @hopeforthefuture But I so dislike being in the hospital or having to wear the blue mask when I go outside. I have seriously considered moving to a warmer climate, or becoming a snowbird for this reason, but I'm not sure I wouldn't be allergic to something there...so, I stay.
 @hopeforthefuture  @Silvia Yup. We have a fireplace (insert) at one end of the house, a wood stove at the other end. And guess who does all of the wood splitting and hauling? :-)
 @Commenter87643  @hopeforthefuture I am allergic to it also. My allergy doc shudders when I tell him about my "bad" life (cats, wood smoke - you name it!). But - allergans are darned near everywhere, especially if you are very allergic. I just keep the inhalers and allergy medicine handy while I rub my face in my cat's fur and put wood on the fire! :-)
@Silvia Love, love, love my wood stove! Best investment we've ever made!Â
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 @Silvia  @hopeforthefuture Or it could be someone (like me) who's allergic to wood smoke.
 @hopeforthefuture  @Silvia Good for you! I just refilled our gas cans, put stabilizer in them. We heat our house with wood stoves anyhow, so we never get cold during power outages..I think the people who complain the most about storms are often the ones who don't prepare ahead of time. :-D