Weather Blog

For those tired of cool springs, the blues are literally going away

For those tired of cool springs, the blues are literally going away
Ttulips bloom near Seattle's Space Needle. (Photo: Jonathan Cooper, Seattleimage.com)

Even though technically, for Seattle at least, temperatures have been near to even a little above average since the start of February, if you ask around, many would say this spring is well on its way to being the third in a row and fourth of the past six that have gone down as cold and rainy with the frequent cloudy, drizzly days.

Well, long range models suggest this spring is about to make an about-face and warm things up a bit.

The first inkling will be much warmer weather expected for the middle of next week, with highs expected to climb well into the 60s if not some 70s amid plenty of sunshine.

But it's just the start of a trend of what appear to remain a somewhat warmer than normal pattern. This map shows the temperature trend for the 8-14 day forecast (so April 26 through May 2) shows very high probabilities of warmer than normal weather:



(The other precipitation maps also shows high chances of dry weather as well.)

But perhaps the bigger news is that the 30- and 90-day forecasts no longer have the cold blue bubble painted over the Pacific Northwest.

Here is the 30 day forecast for May:



The "EC" stands for equal chances meaning there is no signal that leads the forecast models to say "warm" or "cold". The map is leaning toward a drier than normal May for the Pacific Northwest.

As for the summer, the 90-day forecast maps (May-July / June-August / July-September) stay somewhat consistent with no direct signal on temperatures but a drier than normal summer is likely.

Those of you already looking ahead to next fall and winter, about the only news we have is that it's "too early to tell". Long range climate models suggest we are going to stay relatively neutral in the El Nino/La Nina cycle through the end of the year, and neutral years are tough to handicap which way their autumns and winters will pan out. We'll just all have to be surprised.