Weather Blog

Hoping for snow next week? Law of averages is on your side

Hoping for snow next week? Law of averages is on your side
A snowman is seen inside the sculpture "Changing Form" and in view of the Space Needle in the aftermath of a weekend snow storm Monday, Dec. 22, 2008, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

Forecast models are doing a dance around potential for some snow showers in the lowlands on Sunday and at times next week, but if you believe in the law of averages, you don't have to use fancy computers to know our chances of at least seeing a few flakes.

Former KOMO Weather Intern and current UW Atmospheric Sciences student Jason Phelps -- a big snow fan in his own right -- has gone back and computed when was the last time it snowed on every date in January.

Lo and behold, we're coming up on a few dates here that haven't seen snow in over 30 years! (And in January 20th's case, nearly 40 years!)

Here is his chart. Note that he counted a trace amount - as in the airport just had to report snow falling, not necessarily sticking or measuring.

1/1: 2004
1/2: 2009
1/3: 2009
1/4: 2009
1/5: 2009
1/6: 2008
1/7: 2008
1/8: 2008
1/9: 2011
1/10: 2011
1/11: 2011
1/12: 2011
1/13: 2007
1/14: 1993
1/15: 1979
1/16: 2007
1/17: 1980
1/18: 1996
1/19: 1996
1/20: 1974
1/21: 1996
1/22: 1993
1/23: 1993
1/24: 2009
1/25: 2009
1/26: 2002
1/27: 2009
1/28: 2008
1/29: 2002
1/30: 2002
1/31: 1999

So if you want to take odds, I'd say on Sunday, Tuesday and next Friday -- we're due!!!