November lives up to its loftier expectations

November had a daunting challenge to live up to "normal" this year, and lo and behold, it reached it.
NOAA uses a 30-year average to compute "normal" temperatures and rainfall, updated every 10 years, and 2012 was the second year of using the fairly-new 1980-2010 period. Many times, the new normals are more of a tweak than a big change -- for example, March's new normal rain is 3.72", and it was 3.75" in the 1970-2000 period.
But November is a different story. After drifting between 5.60 and 5.90" as the average monthly rainfall through the decades, this current 30-year period saw a huge jump to 6.57" -- an 11 percent increase!
Why so much? Blame 2006. That year saw November not only break, but totally destroy the record for wettest month on record -- by several inches! When all was said and done, the month tallied 15.63 inches of rain, breaking the old monthly record of 10.71" and, as you saw, triple the average month.
So when that year got factored into the new 30-year period, it skewed the November averages much higher. And it means the future 1990-2020 and 2000-2030 numbers will remain rather high in November, baring a massive, extended autumn drought, with that month still factored in.
But even more amazing? With the higher bar and echoes of a since-busted El Nino forecast still reverberating, 2012's November has reached that lofty average with a few days left to spare.
As of Monday, Seattle was at 6.71" of rain. And with more rain expected Thursday and Friday, we should be over 7" by the time all is said and done. Combine that with our very wet October and the water year is off to a rousing start.
We'll see what December holds. Remember last year was one of the driest on record and barely had any rain until the week after Christmas (finishing at 2.24 inches.)
Scott,
Here's a simple graphic of the start of the last dozen or so water years. Â Just a data visualization exercise I was playing with. Â
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It displays cumulative rainfall for the first 92 days of the respective water years beginning on October 1st of each year. Â In it you can really see that push of water which came through in the autumn of 2006. Â Absolutely extraordinary. Â This fall has been rainy - but so far, not anywhere close to 2006. Â At least up to the end of November.
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/96201513@N00/8234008668/in/photostream
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Scott ~ I was looking at the GFS long range and on Dec. 10 it is showing a 984 low coming up from the south and, so far, looks like it's going to be pretty close to the coast and head inland toward the center of Vancouver Island. It also looks like it has a lot of moisture with it. Is this a typical set up for a strong, wide spread wind storm? I know that long range predictions are very "iffy" but this one is sure interesting to look at!
Scott ~ Do you see any signs of any good storms in the long range forcasts? Like a really good wind or snow storm?  I love stormy weather but this season has been pretty boring so far....hoping it will get more exciting...soon!
Im sure well have another dry december this year since we had so much rain lately, and with la`nina gone snow for the lowlands this winter is unlikely.